Thinktank Analysis Reveals Public Support for Tax Increases on Physical Gambling Venues

A recent report from the Social Market Foundation details polling results that indicate 43% of the public favours doubling the machine games duty applied to adult gaming centres and casinos. This adjustment would lift the rate from 20% to 40% on relevant machines, and the modelling contained in the same document projects additional annual revenue between £275 million and £458 million on top of the existing £600 million collected from Category B £2 slot machines. The proposals focus specifically on physical high-street locations that avoided the duty increases previously applied to remote operators. The Social Market Foundation released its findings through a combination of public polling and economic modelling released in late June 2026. Observers note that the timing places the discussion within ongoing conversations about fiscal measures ahead of potential policy adjustments in July 2026. Data from the report shows current machine games duty generates steady returns from land-based venues while remote gaming faces a separate duty structure that rose several years earlier.

Details of the Proposed Duty Change

Machine games duty applies to gaming machines located in adult gaming centres, casinos, and similar premises. Under the current framework the 20% rate covers Category B machines that accept £2 maximum stakes. The Social Market Foundation analysis examines what would happen if that rate doubled to 40%, and the resulting figures indicate the extra yield would come entirely from physical sites. Revenue estimates range from £275 million to £458 million per year depending on assumptions about player behaviour and machine numbers.

Those who reviewed the modelling explain that the projections rest on existing duty returns and do not assume any reduction in machine numbers. The report also records that adult gaming centres and casinos currently contribute the £600 million baseline from the same Category B machines. Because these venues operate under different licensing rules from online platforms, they escaped the earlier remote gaming duty increase that took effect several years ago.

Polling Results and Public Opinion Data

The Social Market Foundation poll found 43% support for the higher rate among respondents. The same survey captured views on whether physical venues should face tax treatment similar to remote operators. Figures reveal that support levels vary by region, with stronger backing in areas that contain fewer adult gaming centres. Researchers compiled responses from a representative sample and cross-checked them against demographic breakdowns included in teh full document.

What's interesting is how the polling distinguishes between support for tax rises on land-based machines versus online play. Respondents expressed clearer approval for targeting physical high-street sites that had not yet seen duty adjustments. The report presents these results alongside the revenue modelling so readers can weigh the two sets of data together.

Connection to Policy Discussions

The Social Market Foundation report links the proposed duty change to statements made by Andy Burnham. According to coverage of the document, the Greater Manchester mayor has previously indicated interest in measures that would affect high-street gambling. The thinktank analysis positions the machine games duty adjustment as one possible route that aligns with those earlier comments. No formal government consultation has been announced at the time of the report's release, yet the figures provide a concrete basis for future consideration.

Current rules place machine games duty at 20% for the relevant category of machines in adult gaming centres and casinos. Remote gaming duty, by contrast, rose to 21% in 2019 and applies to online slots and casino products. The disparity leaves physical venues paying a lower percentage on comparable machine play, which the Social Market Foundation report identifies as the core issue under examination.

Revenue Context and Existing Collections

Government statistics show that Category B £2 machines already deliver approximately £600 million annually through machine games duty. The additional £275 million to £458 million projected under the doubled rate would increase that total substantially. The modelling accounts for variations in machine utilisation and does not incorporate any changes to stake limits or machine numbers. Observers point out that the projections remain sensitive to assumptions about how players might respond to higher operator costs passed on through the supply chain.

The report emphasises that the tax applies only to physical premises and leaves remote operators unaffected by this particular adjustment. This distinction keeps the focus on high-street adult gaming centres and casinos that continue to operate under the original 20% rate. Data contained in the document allows direct comparison between current collections and the modelled outcome at 40%.

Conclusion

The Social Market Foundation report supplies both polling evidence of 43% public support and revenue estimates ranging from £275 million to £458 million for a doubled machine games duty on land-based venues. The analysis centres on Category B £2 machines already contributing £600 million each year and highlights that physical high-street sites avoided earlier duty increases applied to remote gaming. The document also notes connections to policy comments made by Andy Burnham. Readers can access the full report and related coverage through the source link provided for further examination of the figures and methodology.